A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
